Climate Disasters

PI: Tomonori Sato (Hokkaido University)

The natural environment in the Arctic and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere is undergoing rapid changes due to accelerated climate warming. At the same time, climate-related disasters caused by extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent worldwide. For example, mid- and high-latitude regions are experiencing more frequent heatwaves and wildfires, while in some boreal regions, persistent wet conditions and permafrost thaw are leading to forest degradation. These climatic changes pose serious risks not only to natural systems but also to human societies. However, the mechanisms underlying Arctic change, as well as their specific contributions to climate hazards and resulting disasters, remain insufficiently understood.

The Climate Disaster Research Program seeks to improve the detection and attribution of climate-related disasters associated with Arctic change through an integrated approach that combines field observations, data analysis, and numerical modeling. Our central focus is to diagnose the environmental conditions that potentially contribute to such disasters by clarifying the interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and land. To this end, we will:

(1) conduct climate model simulations to assess the roles of Arctic and extra-Arctic environments,

(2) develop visualization methods for monitoring the current state of the Arctic and weather events, and

(3) carry out field observations to understand the actual environmental conditions in Arctic and circum-Arctic regions.

Through these efforts, we aim to elucidate the processes underlying rapid environmental changes in these regions and provide scientific knowledge to enhance predictability.

These research efforts will be closely coordinated with other programs focusing on aerosols, greenhouse gases, and biodiversity. By integrating multidisciplinary knowledge, we aim to contribute to Strategic Goal 1 through synergistic collaboration. In addition, our evaluation of the broader societal impacts of Arctic change aligns with Strategic Goal 2. Fostering synergies within the ArCS-3 framework is essential, and to that end, we plan to collaborate with the Arctic Regional Simulation System (AReSS) for modeling-based attribution studies and the Earth Observation Satellite for satellite data analysis and model development.