Strategic Goal 1

Strategic Goal 1 will be achieved by four research programs, focusing Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas as major elements for global warming, Climate Disaster and Biodiversity as its receptors. It has been pointed out that the rapid changes in the various Arctic environments will have distinct impacts on global climate and ecosystems. Although many scientific findings contributing to reliable predictions of climate change have been gained to date, gaps in observation data and uncertainties in numerical simulations have not been fully resolved. It is still important to continue scientific researches using cutting-edge technology. Strategic Goal 1 aims to generate knowledge based on scientific findings of the Arctic environmental changes utilizing interdisciplinary observations and advanced simulations. An example of “interdisciplinary observation” here is simultaneous measurements of carbon and water cycles across atmosphere–land–ocean fields, using the newly launched satellite “GOSAT-GW” and the Arctic research vessel “Mirai II”. Examples of “advanced simulation” include implementation of the sophisticated processes of aerosol–cloud interactions and the biogeochemical inflow into ocean by coastal erosion in numerical models. In a broader sense, we also plan to adopt machine learning to analyze weather and ecosystems. The research themes widely covering sea ice, carbon budget, ecosystems, extreme weather, and pollutants contribute to comprehensive understanding of the interconnected environmental changes and their mechanisms. Finally, we aim to generate various knowledge relevant to shipping, agriculture, fisheries, land use, and public health.

The aerosol theme aims to improve our understanding of aerosol processes across atmosphere–land–ocean fields, including their relationship with clouds and climate change. The greenhouse gas theme estimates the emission and sinking sources of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) through accurate evaluation of carbon and nitrogen cycles changing in boreal forests, glacier, and sea ice areas. The climate disaster theme investigates the causes of climate change in the circumpolar region and the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme weather events occurring in the mid-latitude regions including Japan. The biodiversity theme focuses on the marine and terrestrial biodiversity with monitoring pollutants such as microplastics. All of these research programs utilize Japanese strengths in high technology and interdisciplinary collaboration by conducting field works in Ny-Ålesund, Alaska, the Arctic Ocean, and other locations, as well as numerical simulations.

Various collaborations are planned among the ArCS III research programs. For example, we will cooperate for simultaneous tracking of CO₂ and aerosols emitted by wildfires with clarification of relationship between changes in water cycle and terrestrial ecosystems. The Arctic sea ice decline is also a common focus to capture changes in air–sea CO₂ exchanges and marine biodiversity. As these issues are closely related to human habitats and legal developments, collaboration with research programs of Strategic Goal 2 and Strategic Goal 3 can also be promoted.